Covid cases nationally have begun to decrease in recent weeks.
But what about here in Pennsylvania?
As Crispin Havener explains, we still might be in for a bumpy ride in the short term.
Slowly but surely new cases of COVID-19 have been gradually dropping in the USA sign this 4th wave of covid cases has finally crested.
But in Pennsylvania, where we got into this current wave a little later than other places, it’s been a bit more up and down.
Last week, for the first time since early July, we saw 5 consecutive days where our 7 day average went down, but Monday and Tuesday’s reports brought that average back up again.
So, which was the blip, the 5 day drop or the 2 day rise? We’ll see.
But once it plays out, and every indication is that it’s still going to happen sooner rather than later…there’s growing optimism that unless something unforeseen happens like a new variant resistant
to vaccines, this should be the last major wave.
“I think by Thanksgiving you’ll have seen this move it’s way through the country. The virus isn’t going away but prevalence levels will decline to a level that feels more manageable.”
But what exactly does manageable mean?
On a national scale current modeling suggests that national numbers would drop from the current 114,000 per day to about 20 thousand a day by the end of November.
Translated for Pennsylvania…that’s about 800 cases per day…a far cry from where we were last holiday season when cases peaked at more than 10,000 per day by mid-December.
But that’s still higher than where we were around the 4th of July when Pennsylvania’s case average bottomed out at 173.
Getting there depends on more people getting vaccinated…
“There’s still of pockets of vulnerability and Covid is so contagious it finds its way into those pockets of vulnerability.”